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Using Bayesian Inference to Support Nitrate Management

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posted on 2025-04-29, 03:50 authored by Matt Dumont, Connor Cleary, Zeb Etheridge

The project aimed to improve the understanding of the past history and future trajectory of NO3-N (nitrate nitrogen) concentrations in groundwater. This was achieved by developing a Bayesian method to infer source concentrations from age distributions and measured NO3-N concentrations in the receptor. For expediency, we refer to this as BASE (Bayesian Approach to Source Estimation) and have implemented the methodology in an open-source python package.

Here we describe the BASE methodology, as well as provide several case studies on its use.

Report No: Z24018.1. Prepared by Komanawa Solutions Ltd. for Our Land and Water National Science Challenge


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This Report has been prepared for the exclusive use of Our Land and Water National Science Challenge and their authorised agents. Except as required by law, no third party may use or rely on this Report unless otherwise agreed in writing by KSL.

Publication date

2024-06-28

Project number

  • Non revenue

Language

  • English

Does this contain Māori information or data?

  • No

Publisher

Komanawa Solutions Ltd

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