Protein Futures: Future Scenarios for Land-Use in Aotearoa New Zealand Synthesis Report

The Protein Future Scenarios project was designed to provide insight to the potential implications of alternative proteins (including plant-based, fermentation and cellular) for land use and environment in Aotearoa/New Zealand. International academic literature and investment trends, as discussed in this report, indicate that alternative proteins have the potential to impact the global protein market by increasing supply and also making claims to environmental and animal welfare benefits over traditional animal-based proteins. While the extent and speed at which alternative protein value chains develop is uncertain, any increase in supply from these sources is likely to impact on the export of proteins. As part of the project, economic and land use modelling were used to assess the potential scope of change, and the results were presented to knowledgeable stakeholders. The results and the feedback from the stakeholders indicate the need for policy or strategy that addresses the impact of alternative proteins on Aotearoa/New Zealand's primary sector. The dairy sector is likely to experience the most significant impacts of alternative proteins, with the potential to provide plant-based 'milks' and to produce whey and casein proteins via precision fermentation. Efforts such as those initiated by Fonterra offer a potential strategy to support the viability of the dairy sector.