Predicting the potential environmental suitability for Theileria orientalis transmission in New Zealand cattle using maximum entropy niche modelling.

The tick-borne haemoparasite Theileria orientalis is the most important infectious cause of anaemia in NewZealand cattle. Since 2012 a previously unrecorded type, T. orientalis type 2 (Ikeda), has been associatedwith disease outbreaks of anaemia, lethargy, jaundice and deaths on over 1000 New Zealand cattle farms,with most of the affected farms found in the upper North Island. The aim of this study was to model therelative environmental suitability for T. orientalis transmission throughout New Zealand, to predict theproportion of cattle farms potentially suitable for active T. orientalis infection by region, island and thewhole of New Zealand and to estimate the average relative environmental suitability per farm by region,island and the whole of New Zealand.The relative environmental suitability for T. orientalis transmission was estimated using the Maxent(maximum entropy) modelling program. The Maxent model predicted that 99% of North Island cattlefarms (n = 36,257), 64% South Island cattle farms (n = 15,542) and 89% of New Zealand cattle farms overall(n = 51,799) could potentially be suitable for T. orientalis transmission. The average relative environmentalsuitability of T. orientalis transmission at the farm level was 0.34 in the North Island, 0.02 in the SouthIsland and 0.24 overall.The study showed that the potential spatial distribution of T. orientalis environmental suitability wasmuch greater than presumed in the early part of the Theileria associated bovine anaemia (TABA) epi-demic. Maximum entropy offers a computer efficient method of modelling the probability of habitatsuitability for an arthropod vectored disease. This model could help estimate the boundaries of theendemically stable and endemically unstable areas for T. orientalis transmission within New Zealand andbe of considerable value in informing practitioner and farmer biosecurity decisions in these respectiveareas.