Modeling fate and transport of fecally-derived microorganisms at the watershed scale: State of the science and future opportunities

Natural waters serve as habitat for a wide range of microorganisms, a proportion of which may be derived from fecal material. A number of watershed models have been developed to understand and predict the fate and transport of fecal microorganisms within complex watersheds, as well as to determine whether microbial water quality standards can be satisfied under site-specific meteorological and/or management conditions. The aim of this review is to highlight and critically evaluate developments in the modeling of microbial water quality of surface waters over the last 10 years and to discuss the future of model development and application at the watershed scale, with a particular focus on fecal indicator organisms (FIOs). In doing so, an agenda of research opportunities is identified to help deliver improvements in the modeling of microbial water quality draining through complex landscape systems. This comprehensive review therefore provides a timely steer to help strengthen future modeling capability of FIOs in surface water environments and provides a useful resource to complement the development of risk management strategies to reduce microbial impairment of freshwater sources.