Anthropogenic increases of catchment nitrogen and phosphorus loads in New Zealand

Spatial regression models were used to predict yields (kg ha−1 yr−1) of nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P) discharged from catchments throughout New Zealand under natural and current conditions. The models were derived using loads (kg yr−1) of TN, NO3-N, TP and DRP calculated for 592 river water quality monitoring sites. Anthropogenic increases in yields above natural levels were associated with the proportions of catchments occupied by the intensive agricultural land cover and were unevenly distributed across regions. Anthropogenic increases in national loads of TN, NO3-N, TP and DRP exported to the ocean were 74%, 159%, 48% and 18%, respectively. Increases in loads exported to the ocean varied considerably at smaller scales, with catchments having significant load increases between 4- and 26-fold for N and 6- to 9-fold for P. Predictions of yields and loads reported here have utility in the development of strategies to manage nutrients.