Some challenges with farm-to-fork modelling

Policymakers and primary industries are increasing interested in creating explicit links along the full value chain from farm to fork. Modelling is a tool that can help with strategy development and planning.

McDowell et al. (2022) modelled the supply chain from farm to fork. They focused on the impacts of water quality and climate change policies and demonstrated the potential impacts of policies on the domestic food supply. Changing agricultural production could meet environmental targets and support healthier diets. Savings in the health system offset lost agriculture revenue, estimated at less than one percent of export returns.

The work passed outputs from one analysis to use as inputs in the next. An optimisation model of diet provided food quantities. Spreadsheet analysis converted food quantities into required production and land area. Environmental pressure and land suitability maps identified locations for production. Land use was optimised for profit, given constraints, using a land use optimisation model. In total, the analysis included two optimisation models, two types of spatial analysis, and several spreadsheets (see McDowell et al. (2022) for references to underlying models and spatial analysis).