Global agriculture faces stagnation in reduction of greenhouse gas emission intensity

This study analyses the changes in greenhouse gas (GHG) emission intensity (measured as kg CO2 equivalent per kg of protein production) across 180 countries and territories and 170 food and feed types. The method begins by estimating GHG emissions at the farmgate level using FAOSTAT data and relevant literature. Protein production is quantified at three levels—primary, semifinal, and final— excluding double-accounting of feed protein not consumed by humans. GHG emissions for each protein production level are then calculated by dividing the emissions by the corresponding protein output, with countries classified based on trade roles and livestock production to assess their impact on global GHG trends.

Over the past six decades, global emission intensity decreased by nearly two-thirds from 1961 to 2019, with significant variability across different regions. This decline was mainly driven by agronomic improvements that boosted productivity, particularly in the earlier years. However, in the most recent decade, the decline in emission intensity has stagnated, and in some countries such as several countries in Africa and South Asia, it has even increased. The trade of protein-rich agricultural products between countries has likely helped reduce global emission intensity, particularly benefiting net importers with high GHG emissions. To ensure a continued decline in emission intensity, countries with higher emissions need to enhance agricultural productivity and minimise land use changes. Meanwhile, countries with lower emission intensity should facilitate free trade in agricultural products and optimise trade practices.